Production and Analysis of the Skills Forecast
Greece, 22 October 2019
Overall objective and purpose of the contract
The main purpose of the contract is to produce regular updates of the Skills Forecast meeting the standards of previous releases. It is envisaged that an update is published every two years so as to provide up-to-date trends of the future of labour markets and skills. These trends provide vital information to different labour market actors: employees, employers, students and parents, social partners, policy makers. This information allows support informed decisions and appropriate actions on the labour market. The forecast should act as an early warning mechanism with the aim of improving the interaction on the labour market and to avoid potential skill imbalances.
The successful tenderer will be requested not only to carry out the updates but also to refine the methodology as necessary and respond on a timely and effective manner in any challenges imposed by external factors, e.g. changes in classifications, breaks in the time series, dates the data are released etc. The development of alternative scenarios, reflecting current socio-economic developments and impacts of different policies will also be essential. The contractor will also be asked to engage in analysing the results towards producing high quality, publishable, reports such as synthesis reports, country fiches, sectoral or occupations studies etc. A deep understanding of the current debates, at policy level, on skills and the labour markets is, thus, essential towards this end.
Scope of the work General description
The work on the project will be organized in several consecutive or parallel order forms. The total value of all order forms will depend on the works requested by Cedefop and may not reach the maximum estimated value of the contract.
The main and regular task to be performed during this contract will be to produce the Skills Forecast every two years in the scope and size to previous ones. However, further refinement and developments of methods will be essential. Qualitative analysis aiding the interpretation of the results will also be required.
The first year work assignment (and first order form) will mainly focus on adopting the Cedefop methodology. It is expected that the underlying macroeconomic model proposed by the contractor will be linked to Cedefop modelling framework. To ensure a smooth transition period, Cedefop will steer the exchange of the knowledge and cooperation between the current contractor and the winner of this tendering procedure. This transition period is expected to take place within the first six months of the contract. The full set of forecasting results compatible with previous Cedefop forecasts are expected to be produced, validated and tested in time for an early 2022 release.
Work assignments in following years will focus on updates of the Skills Forecast taking into consideration the latest macroeconomic data and underlying assumptions. The contractor will also be asked to support the detailed analyses as well as online publication of the results. The analyses should utilize the wide range of results produced by the forecast, include other qualitative information and be focused on developments within countries, sectors or occupations. Work assignments may also include further development and improvement of Cedefop modelling methodology, i.e. various parts and modules of the framework. All methodologic achievements and forecasting results will be subject to a validation process. The contractor will be expected to run the results through a validation process involving the network of country experts which has been set up by Cedefop. For example, through a series of webinars which will not only secure timely feedback but will also strengthen the storytelling of the Skills Forecast across Member States. However, one validation/technical workshop is expected to be organized every year to discuss with the group of national experts the results and receive feedback on the methodological developments and the purposes of the project in general (e.g. explore avenues for further dissemination of results etc.). Workshops will be organized by Cedefop in cooperation with the contractor. All costs of the country experts’ participation to the workshop will be covered by Cedefop following the official regulations. The content of the workshops will be agreed in close collaboration with Cedefop experts.
Tasks to be undertaken during the contract and expected outputs/reports
The tasks are organised around three interlinked activities:
Production of regular updates of the Skills Forecast
Continuous development/refinement of the methodology and validation of results
Production of high quality outputs based on the results.
The OFs will be organised around the three key tasks. Below is presented an indicative list of tasks, which will be agreed in close collaboration with Cedefop experts. The exact content of each order form will be agreed with Cedefop and may or may not include a combination of tasks. The order forms will set a timetable that is suitable for the on time delivery of the Skills Forecast updates and the publication plans of Cedefop.
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